Yesterday evening, I played the role of the expert in a primetime airing on the main Danish national broadcaster (link). The topic was the corona crisis and how it affects the economy, and, particularly, the Danish real estate market and real estate prices, as well as how it compares to the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.
I argued that I would be very surprised if we do not see a fall in Danish real estate prices. I also argued, though, that I would also be surprised if we will see Danish real estate prices fall as much as they did during the aftermath of the financial crisis.
As you might know, I chaired the government-appointed committee that investigated the causes and consequences of the financial crisis in Denmark (the so-called Rangvid-committee). The real estate market played a major role back then, i.e. the committee analyzed in detail the Danish real estate market before, during, and after the financial crisis. Danish real estate prices fell by something akin to 30% following the financial crisis.
Depending on a lot of uncertainties (the duration of the crisis, what happens to interest rates, etc., etc.), I believe it is a fair assessment that we will not see as large a drop this time. This has not least to do with the fact that there clearly was a Danish real estate bubble when we entered the financial crisis. There is no bubble now.
I talk a number of times during the airing, at: 2:20, 14:05, 18:40, 21:20, 24:45. Unfortunately, for non-Danish readers, the airing is the Danish.
(You also get a chance to see a corner of my living room :-). The hosts were in the studio, but due to the corona situation, I was recorded live at home).